Why Arab Parties in Israeli Election May Not Act as Kingmakers
Speculation over who holds the keys to Israel’s next coalition frequently centers on the country’s minority factions. Yet, political analysts and recent polling suggest that Arab parties in Israeli election cycles face steep structural and political barriers that could prevent them from serving as decisive kingmakers.
Historically marginalized from executive power, Arab-led factions broke precedent in 2021 when the United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas, joined the ideologically diverse Bennett-Lapid coalition. While that breakthrough proved that an Arab party could enter the halls of government, subsequent political developments have complicated the path toward repeating that role.
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Persistent Internal Divisions and Threshold Risks
The foremost hurdle facing Arab political leverage is deep internal fragmentation. For years, the Joint List—an alliance uniting Hadash, Ta’al, Balad, and Ra’am—maximized Arab political representation by consolidating votes under a single slate.
That unity has since dissolved into rival factions with divergent political philosophies:
- Ra’am: Prioritizes pragmatic domestic engagement, focusing on budgets, infrastructure, and addressing rising crime rates in Arab towns.
- Hadash-Ta’al: Balances national Palestinian identity with civic equality campaigns while remaining cautious about formally joining Zionist-led cabinets.
- Balad: Advocates for turning Israel into a “state of all its citizens” and strictly opposes joining or supporting any Zionist coalition government.
Running on separate lists presents an acute mathematical danger. Under Israel’s electoral system, a party must clear a 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset. When factions run independently, lower voter participation risks sinking one or more lists below the cutoff, burning tens of thousands of ballots and effectively neutralizing their collective bargaining power.
Voter Disillusionment and Turnout Challenges
Another major obstacle is voter turnout among Arab citizens of Israel, who make up roughly 20% of the country’s population. Turnout in Arab municipalities has fluctuated dramatically across recent ballots.
After reaching a modern peak of nearly 65% in March 2020, turnout subsequently tumbled in later contests. Surging rates of organized crime and violence in Arab communities remain the top priority for local residents. Many voters express profound skepticism that participation in national politics has produced tangible improvements in personal safety or socioeconomic parity.
Without high voter mobilization, Arab factions cannot secure the double-digit seat counts necessary to dictate coalition negotiations to mainstream Israeli blocs.
Challenges Facing Arab Parties in Israeli Election Coalitions
Even if Arab factions capture significant representation, institutional resistance across Israel’s political spectrum severely limits their ability to act as kingmakers. Mainstream political arithmetic leaves them with few willing partners.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies have long ruled out partnerships with Arab factions, framing them as adversaries to Israeli security. While Likud briefly engaged in informal overtures with Ra’am ahead of the 2021 election, right-wing coalition partners have since hardened their opposition against any form of cooperation.
Simultaneously, Zionist center-left factions face intense electoral vulnerabilities. Opponents routinely attack center-left leaders for relying on non-Zionist factions to govern. Fearing political backlash from centrist voters, many mainstream leaders remain hesitant to enter formal governing agreements or grant substantial political concessions to Arab parties.
Ideological Dilemmas and Red Lines
The constraints operate in both directions. Arab parliamentarians face significant pressure from their own constituents regarding regional diplomacy, military operations, and sensitive holy sites in Jerusalem.
During Ra’am’s tenure in the Bennett-Lapid government, every security escalation in the West Bank and Gaza created intense strain, nearly collapsing the coalition on multiple occasions. Many Arab lawmakers argue that entering an Israeli cabinet requires compromises that run counter to their fundamental principles on the Palestinian issue.
What Happens Next
As Israel navigates ongoing security crises and prepares for future general elections, the influence of minority factions will depend heavily on voter mobilization campaigns and final candidate filings. Campaign strategists within Arab communities continue to debate whether to revive unified lists to ensure crossing the electoral threshold or to pursue independent agendas.
Unless Arab parties in Israeli election battles resolve their internal fractures and find genuine coalition partners across the political divide, their theoretical status as kingmakers will remain constrained by the realities of Israeli parliamentary politics.
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