Over the past 15 months, senior commanders in Kampala discovered that their three-star rank offered zero shield once President Yoweri Museveni’s son turned against them. The wave of arrests and public humiliations has thrown the Uganda succession race into turmoil, exposing an aggressive campaign for control over the armed forces and the state.
Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, 52, is the chief of defence forces and the clear heir apparent to his 82-year-old father, who has ruled Uganda since 1986. Museveni took the oath for a seventh elected presidential term earlier this year, but his son has openly declared his ambition to take the top job in 2031.
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The standoff carries immediate consequences for Uganda’s 45 million citizens. If power transfers through military coercion rather than civilian party consensus, the country risks trading four decades of single-leader rule for an unchecked dynastic regime backed by the first family.
Stripping ranks on social media
The internal conflict burst into public view on Nov. 2, when authorities detained former deputy army chief Lt Gen Peter Elwelu. Officials accused him of plotting unrest in the eastern Teso region, but Kainerugaba bypasses military tribunals to pass sentence online.
“The traitor Peter Elwelu is hereby stripped of his ranks. He is demoted to Private,” Kainerugaba posted on X, adding that security personnel had detained more than 20 soldiers tied to the general.
Ugandan military regulations do not permit rank revocations through internet posts, but troops confiscated 15 guns, military uniforms and two pickup trucks linked to Elwelu regardless. His family dismissed all the allegations as baseless.
Elwelu is one of at least a dozen generals and senior officers detained since April 2024. The net has swept up three former military intelligence chiefs who once ran Uganda’s most sensitive security desks.
Maj Gen James Birungi faced court-martial charges of treason and terrorism before Kainerugaba announced he had personally “forgiven” him. Maj Gen Abel Kandiho remains in detention on treachery accusations, while Brig-Gen Charles Bakahumura was freed only after another public pardon from the commander.
Night threats against the vice-president
Kainerugaba did not stop at military targets. On the night of Nov. 9, the general directed his fury at Vice-President Jessica Alupo.
In a string of late-night posts, he questioned Alupo’s loyalty, threatened her with dismissal and possible arrest, and claimed her seat for himself. He warned that the cabinet would operate “on military terms” once he assumed his father’s deputy post.
“Whoever is in that office should prepare to hand it over soon,” Kainerugaba wrote, before deleting the messages hours later.
By the following morning, his account of nearly 1.4 million followers went dark. It remains unclear whether he deactivated the profile himself or platform moderators suspended it.
Government spokesperson Allan Kasujja dismissed talk of a succession fallout as “hogwash.” Even so, the sight of an active army chief openly threatening the vice-president shocked the civilian administration.
How the Uganda succession race split the ruling party
Behind closed doors, the ruling National Resistance Movement is fracturing over the son’s aggressive push for power. During a senior leadership meeting on Nov. 10, members argued over a formal motion to endorse Kainerugaba as Museveni’s designated successor.
Party insiders revealed that multiple members spoke against the measure, forcing leadership to abandon a planned vote. Some officials proposed retiring the general from active service to give him civilian administrative training. Others suggested that Gen Salim Saleh, Museveni’s younger brother, was far better suited to lead civilian politics.
NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong Awany pushed back against reports of a rebellion, insisting the party had made no final decision and would communicate choices through regular channels at the right time.
Dr Gerald Bareebe, a political scientist at York University, connects the recent Ugandan military arrests directly to the political manoeuvres known locally as the “Muhoozi Project.”
Senior officers believed not to support the project have been arrested, detained or charged with corruption and treason.
Bareebe said several targeted commanders had their charges dropped only after private negotiations with Museveni and his son, during which they agreed to support the general’s presidential bid.
Elite commandos and silenced opponents
Security analyst Freddie David Egesa defended the arrests, arguing that detaining suspects protects witnesses and advances a genuine anti-corruption sweep. He stressed that Kainerugaba acted in consultation with the commander-in-chief rather than executing a unilateral purge.
Yet the internal balance of the armed forces reveals deep structural divisions. Kainerugaba built his authority as head of the Special Forces Command, the well-funded unit guarding the presidency and strategic infrastructure. While regular army officers face sudden dismissal, the elite guard answers directly to the first family.
Kainerugaba is pairing military control with political muscle through his Patriotic League of Uganda. His own son, Ruhamya, recently graduated from Britain’s Sandhurst military academy, suggesting the family plans to preserve its military grip across generations.
Civic opponents have found little room to push back. Veteran opposition leader Kizza Besigye is in detention awaiting trial on treason charges, while Bobi Wine fled into exile in the United States after facing personal threats from Kainerugaba.
The Uganda succession race now hinges on whether senior party veterans can rein in the army chief before the NRM formally adopts its candidate list for the 2031 election.
Source: BBC
